30 August 2016

Trump's Slump in NASCAR Country
Deepens Republican Fears of Defeat


The Guardian (UK)

One month on from a precipitous collapse in Donald Trump’s poll ratings, many Republicans are no longer asking whether he can win the White House, but how badly he will lose.

Election models put Hillary Clinton’s chances of victory in November’s presidential election at over 80% – in the words of the New York Times, her chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an NFL kicker makes a field goal from the 20-yard line. 

FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver predicts a 28% chance of a landslide, in which she wins the popular vote by double digits...

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29 August 2016

There IS No Horse Race

'It’s Clinton by a mile, with Trump praying for black swans'


Slate
To anyone not following the ins and outs of the election, the contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton has all the trappings of a close-fought, competitive election. 

Both candidates dominate the news media; both have held massive rallies and events; both are on the airwaves with ads on television and radio; and both are maneuvering on the ground in an effort to reach broad and diverse constituencies. Turn to CNN or MSNBC, and you’ll see breathless coverage of each development in the race, reinforcing the sense that this a tight contest between two formidable campaigns—one horse hitting the quarter pole half a length ahead of the other. 

But of course it’s nothing like that. Hillary Clinton isn’t just leading—she’s dominant. And her odds of winning get stronger each day she holds that dominant position...

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26 August 2016

Trump’s Repellent Inner Circle



Donald Trump is undergoing his own 'extreme vetting.' And we are learning a great deal about the quality of his public pledges. 

In no particular order, Trump has shifted his position on raising the federal minimum wage (against it, for it, get rid of it, leave it to the states, put it at
$10 an hour); on fighting the Islamic State (bomb the 'hell out of them' and take the oil fields, let our regional allies take the lead, declare war and send in troops, let Russia take care of it); on taxes for the wealthy (increase them, cut them dramatically, make the wealthy pay more, make everyone pay less); on his Muslim ban (exclude all Muslims, keep Muslims out except for members of the military and current residents, it was 'just a suggestion,' ban Muslims from countries with a history of terrorism, impose 'extreme vetting'); on the national debt (eliminate it in eight years, prioritize massive infrastructure spending, renegotiate debt with creditors, just 'print the money'). 

Now, concerning his defining promise to round up and deport 11 million undocumented men, women and children, Trump is undergoing a rapid, convulsive transition from Mr. Hyde into Dr. Jekyll. In the movies, this role would require hours in the chair of a highly skilled makeup artist.
Trump has Sean Hannity...

More Proof That Donald Trump
Really Wants Hillary Clinton to Get Elected


Many have noted this pattern before. Hillary Clinton has a terrible news cycle and Donald Trump makes sure to swallow his foot live on television to distract from that bad news.

Time and time again the media starts to focus on Clinton’s emails, Trump says something stupid or fires a staffer to distract from everything. But there are plenty of occasions as well where the media declares what Hillary Clinton is going to do and Trump tees up the event just perfectly for her.

It is a regular and sustained pattern and practice from Donald Trump...

23 August 2016

Why I Want Trump to Lose in a Landslide

By now even most Trumpsters have paused for a moment to wonder what the Gee Oh Pee will look like if/when Trump loses.  WaPo's recent musings on the topic touch on the idea that Trumpism -or some similar alt/right movement- might even be here to stay...

Trump's Kids are Cashing In on His Campaign,
BIG Time...



Vice: 
Republican Donald Trump has so far paid $7.7 million in campaign contributions to his own companies and children, according to a filing with the Federal Elections Commission, and as the campaign transitions to the general election those payments are increasing

In May, they totaled at least $1.1 million—nearly 20 percent of all campaign spending that month—and in July, another $800,000 came into the Trump brood...

21 August 2016

Reaganite's SUNDAY FUNNIES